What a year it has been already. Just a few months ago I was attending the annual World Economic Forum in Davos, where there was little consideration that the world would plunge into a full-blown health crisis in just a few weeks. All forecast models are being reviewed to consider the short- to long-term effect on global supply chains, among other factors.


By Busi Mavuso
Indecision is a certainty in SA that has long plagued our economy. But now we have an unprecedented new layer of uncertainty added in the form of coronavirus.
We knew this year would possibly be the same as ones gone by, with further uncertainty a central theme of the SA economy: another season of indecision about energy policy and the future role of our state-owned enterprises that continue to cripple the state with every passing day. In some odd way, perhaps, this was our certainty. The ingredient that has added another layer of uncertainty is one we’ve never seen before: the coronavirus. There’s quite simply no telling what effect the pandemic will have on our economy, let alone the globe.
Moody’s Investor Services, the only credit ratings agency to hold our debt at investment grade, has lowered our growth forecast for 2020 to a measly 0.4% because of this “black swan” event. It is the second time in less than a month that the agency cut our prospects as the world’s leading economies reel from its effects.
SA’s first three months of the year are traditionally its weakest growth period and, if you consider how severe load-shedding has been in recent weeks, over and above the impact of the coronavirus, it would not be surprising if we are set for a third consecutive quarter of contraction.
Have your say.
Share your opinion